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By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
On Saturday night, inside their own backyard wheelhouse full of 100,000+ purple & gold heathens shaking Tiger Stadium's 100 Years of ghosts & last second (or no seconds) juju out of the rafters, Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers possess a final colossal opportunity to make a grand statement in 2024.
The mission is clear:
Beat fellow 2 loss Alabama at home, a Crimson Tide squad shorn & shaved of its mythic intimidation factor, worn down to a husk of bitchy, spoiled fans & a squad of mercenary players, led by a first year non-Saban head coach, a one dimensional (yet at times incredibly effective) quarterback, and a sloppy, opportunistic defense who were destroyed & even punished by Diego Pavia's Vanderbilt, Tennessee and for much of the 2nd half vs Georgia.
Whoever wins will continue on in their quest for an increasingly likely SEC Championship Game birth, whoever falls will be cast asunder, mired in failure & dashed expectations, alongside scalding hot seat flames for either Brian Kelly or Kalen DeBoer....and due to vastly different reasons.
The objective is clear, the stakes are at their highest, the game kicks off at 6:30pm central time.....a night game amid the earthy fall humidity & potential haze or even torrential downfall from Hurricane Raphael......an occurrence which would make this matchup even wilder.
Alabama isn't a team that scares LSU, however the Tigers must shut down their biggest strengths:
Limit & contain the Tide's running game, pocketing or preventing any supply to freshman WR Ryan Williams (this task affords Zy Alexander an optimal chance to become a Tiger Legend on Saturday), while QB Garrett Nussmeier must astutely attack Alabama's interception-hungry secondary.
Another overwhelming, unavoidable factor no LSU fan wants to discuss?
The Tigers' pitiful running game, a corpse which freshman phenom Caden Durham propped up for a few games until injury hobbled his playmaking abilities vs A&M (Frank Wilson's running backs averaged 1.9 yards per carry vs Texas A&M).
LSU's three main backs, Durham, Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams combined for 783 rushing yards & 9 TDs over their first 8 games; in comparison, Alabama's trio of leading rushers, Jamarion Miller, QB Jalen Milroe, and Justice Haynes are at 1,180 yards & 24 TDs....
Joe Sloan's offense only averages 115 yards per game on the ground....Alabama are at 177....
The point is obvious....LSU hasn't been able to run the ball, Alabama can....
LSU must find a way to dictate terms offensively. If they can't run the ball, Sloan must generate plays that act as extensions of the running game to keep Nussmeier & his red shirt freshmen interior O-linemen ticking through advantageous scenarios.
Although the passing game will feature prominently, mostly from LSU, whichever squad wins inside the trenches will triumph over 4+ quarters.
Bo Davis' D-line will be more than up for this one (I'm more concerned about LSU's secondary stopping big plays at the back end), however Brad Davis' O-line will need beastly, career-defining outings from bookend tackles Emery Jones Jr and Will Campbell in order to survive without starting left guard Garrett Dellinger.
Could this be a night for LSU tight end Mason Taylor, a familiar nightmare for all Alabama players and fans, helping wear down Alabama's defense over 4 quarters via the intermediary passing game?
I think so.
Joe Sloan's offense is under utilizing Taylor, a clutch commodity who's proven himself as a game changer time and time again, and yet, since his epic freshman campaign, we haven't quite seen Taylor fed nearly enough to become the dominating presence LSU's offense desperately needs him to be.
Yes, there was explosive plays made by Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and Caden Durham over 8 games, but we haven't witnessed LSU's offense at its apex...not even close, ignoring easy routes & yards over the middle for complex, difficult NFL throws to the sideline.
What's crazy?
LSU's flat offensive stretch of play coincides with Nussmeier tossing top 5 SEC & national marks across the board while both Lacy & Anderson stand near the top of SEC receiving....such is the potential for fireworks if LSU's talent is correctly harnessed.
This is exactly why Sloan must utilize Chris Hilton Jr and Zavion Thomas downfield or over the middle, making good usage of their pace & pedigree in open spaces, working Thomas into jet sweep or screen pass action....all of these quick fire, max yards plays possess a potential to go for massive chunks, especially if Jones or Campbell pull outside as blockers.
And so...I feel this game comes down to four primary factors:
WILL LSU STOP ALABAMA'S RUNNING GAME & ESTABLISH THEIR OWN GROUND ATTACK?
HOW GARRETT NUSSMEIER HANDLES ADVERSITY & DECISION MAKING
WHICHEVER SQUAD WINS THE PHYSICAL BATTLE UP FRONT
WHICHEVER SECONDARY BALLS OUT AND MAKES PLAYS AT THE BACKEND
If LSU pull off 3 of those 5, specifically the battle inside the trenches & avoiding turnovers / drive-killing penalties / negative plays, victory is more than possible.
I would be confounded if Blake Baker's defense can't at least minimize the running game of Jalen Milroe after two weeks studying their flaws vs Marcel Reed and A&M....though Alabama's duo of running backs worry me due to their durability, power and pace.
But this game will all be decided and commanded by the decision making of LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier...I would be stunned if he suffered a second straight turnover heavy game....and still, the Tigers' offensive supporting cast must help their quarterback.
LSU may be a flawed team, but due to Saturday's setting, scenario, opponent and stakes, my own mistrust of Alabama's Kalen DeBoer, as well as a long standing undefeated home record under Brian Kelly that dates back to October 8th, 2022, I love LSU beating the Tide.
PREDICTION
LSU 34
ALABAMA 26
by LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
©️ 2024 Uninterrupted Writings Inc