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By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
On Saturday night, Brian Kelly's top 10 ranked LSU Tigers will travel to College Station, a place where neither Joe nor Jayden could win.....a setting of the damned where LSU unthinkably hasn't won since 2016 (losses in 2018, 2020 & 2022).....against one of their most hated little snot-nosed brother rivals, facing the backdrop of a blackout-clad cannibalistic crowd hellbent on purple & gold dismemberment.....taking on an opponent who believe they have a chance at ultimate glory....and it's LSU's job to shatter their dreams, hopes & ambitions, while also stamping their own into existence, all the while certifying themselves as one of the lead dogs in the SEC Championship queue to Atlanta.
Surprising everyone in sports media from Paul Finebaum to Josh Pate, LSU survived a Week 1 opening loss for the 3rd straight year under Brian Kelly and, with pressure at its most suffocating, a younger, more inexperienced squad (short on depth) and a less familiar new coaching staff still found a way to improve game by game into one of the SEC's top 2 squads as of Week 9.
Following their dangerously close 27-20 loss to USC, just like the Count of Monte Cristo, Brian Kelly's Tigers disappeared from the public eye / national interest for nearly 2 months before coming back for an ultimate, gradually building revenge......
Barely surviving South Carolina on the road turned into a rousing, triumphant overtime win over then-ranked #8 Ole Miss in just a matter of a few weeks, even as the Tigers lost their most talented & versatile, generational defender Harold Perkins to an ACL injury, or most experienced & battle tested DT Jacobian Guillory to an Achilles, plus RB John Emery Jr suffering another ACL tear, WR Kyle Parker out for the season due to a shoulder problem, all as the mysterious bone bruise continues to keep Chris Hilton Jr from playing a single snap yet in 2024, and yet these mishaps haven't distracted, disrupted or denied this LSU team from an all encompassing annihilation of Arkansas....supplying their best performance of the year during a game that worried damn near every media analyst, local or national....including LSUOdyssey.
This team has taken on water, they've braved the perfect storm, they've lost some crew overboard, but they're not only still here & fighting, Kelly's squad have refined themselves back to the meat & potatoes of footballing essence: unity, violence, communication, intensity, aggression, high IQ, anticipation....we're seeing the effort & energy on damn near every snap from all three phases.....and despite QB Garrett Nussmeier's infinite star power & rising profile, make no mistake, 2024 LSU is a squad who's identity is starting to be instigated by Blake Baker's impressive, bloodthirsty defensive unit.
LSU's defensive turnaround is exactly why the Tigers are 6-1.
Compared to 2023's Matt House defense over 7 games, Baker's unit doesn't possess superstar talents Perkins, Wingo, Maason or Guillory, as House did, and yet this 2024 group allows 68 less points, adds 44 more QB pressures, 11 more sacks, 9 additional forced fumbles, 6 more fumble recoveries, and of course 1 fewer defeat than House's 2023 squad....
Whit Weeks continues to be a Butkus frontrunner if I've ever seen one, leading the SEC in tackles with 69 total stops, before picking off his first ever collegiate pass last Saturday vs Arkansas....pulling off a play that looked nearly identical to Tyrann Mathieu's play vs West Virginia 13 yeara prior, pressuring the QB, batting the ball up in the air to himself, complete with an inside the 5 yard line collection just agonizingly short of the goal line.....it was a spooky play, an echo of the past bouncing off the walls waiting to be unleashed.
Weeks is far from alone, supported by an insatiable, relentless defense, sackmaster Bradyn Swinson, reliable veteran LB Greg Penn III, free safety Sage Ryan playing his best football, Saivion Jones doing it all up front, freshman linebacker Davhon Keys contributing big plays from the bench, the revenge tour of Major Burns, transfer payoffs Gio Paez, Jardin Gilbert and Jay'viar Suggs, as well as the rise of freshmen DTs Ahmad Breaux or Dominick McKinley.
We know all about Garrett Nussmeier's brilliance this season, 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs, 6 INTs and 2 rushing scores, leading a pair of comeback wins down double digits vs SEC foes, however Joe Sloan's offense is beginning to find a critical balance on the ground thanks to freshman Caden Durham's rushing prowess (382 yards, 62 carries, 6 rushing TDs, 6.2 per carry, 148 receiving yards, 10 catches, and 2 receiving TDs).
The only negatives hurting LSU's offense right now?
Penalties, attaining consistent rushing success week in & week out, alongside a lack of downfield explosive plays in the passing game, Sloan & Nussmeier opting for a more conservative short passing attack over 7 games that has been nonetheless successful and at times extremely entertaining (Kyren Lacy providing 6 TD catches & 512 yards as the team's only utilized downfield, big play WR).
But against an A&M defensive front that's much better than their secondary, LSU's short passing game setting up the run, as well as shots downfield, is the right move, getting the ball out of Nuss's hands quickly & forcing Mike Elko's defense to cover every blade of grass from the outset.
As for the 2024 Aggies, who are undefeated since losing their primetime opener just like LSU (falling to Notre Dame in Week 1), outside of former Istrouma High running back La'veon Moss, I haven't seen many explosive plays or playmakers from their offense.
However, Elko's defense will be a definite challenge for Nussmeier and Co, taking on a group who allowed only a pair of teams to score over 20 points (Notre Dame tacking on 23 & pesky Mississippi State scoring 24 this last weekend).
This Saturday night will be a great opportunity to deploy Zavion Thomas and Aaron Anderson in more unorthodox setups to utilize their open field pace, jet sweep action followed by shots to both speedsters down the field.
In the leadup to last weekend's game vs Arkansas, LSUOdyssey predicted Nuss would fire off one short pass after another in order to wear down and fold the Razorbacks' defense, however, I didn't expect the Tigers to enjoy such success on the ground.
Clocking 158 combined rushing yards while Caden Durham slammed home 3 rushing scores, 2 from inside the 5 yard line, LSU didn't require such a heavy duty passing attack.
This week, I think the Tigers have more than a chance to continue their newfound balance riding Durham's supernatural rushing, but however Nuss & Co move the ball is of little consequence as long as Joe Sloan's offense score touchdowns rather than field goals.
Look for some big plays inside the red zone for hulking freshman TE Trey'Dez Green, fresh off his 3rd receiving score of the season, 2 TDs and a key, game-sealing 2 point conversion vs Arkansas.
Trying to guard the 6 foot 7 mismatch is basically a kamikaze mission....feed him.
On the other sideline, A&M's Connor Weigman relies on very few weapons in the passing game outside of Noah Thomas, lingering at just 289 yards, 21 catches and 3 TDs....leading the Aggies in all listed receiving categories.
Weigman has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (4 to 3), 718 yards through the air, 112 on the ground, and 7 turnover worthy passes (including the aforementioned ugly interceptions).
If LSU's front can play with brutal, swift vengeance up front, disrupt plays & protections, confine Moss to small chunks of yardage, and get in Weigman's face, Blake Baker's defense continues to prove through 7 games they will generate turnovers, sacks, tackles for loss, batted passes, continuous pressure (71 in the last 3 games), and nonstop chaos....
....against a one dimensional offensive setup & an easily rattled / turnover-happy quarterback, Baker's defense should enjoy another powerhouse outing.
With two strong defenses on either team, the result of this game falls squarely upon LSU's offensive strength & creativity....will Sloan, Nuss & Co allow this SEC showdown to become a grinding defensive death march, or will the Tigers offense seize control early, affording themselves the opportunity to dictate proceedings??
Two factors to be very aware of:
Connor Weigman started against and beat LSU in 2022, ruining the Tigers CFP chances (though he only threw 12/18 for 155 and 2 TDs, with most of the damage done by their running back Achane).
Also, LSU haven't been able to win at Kyle Field since 2016....Garrett Nussmeier will have to achieve something neither Joe or Jayden accomplished in their first season starting.
PREDICTION
COMING UP NEXT!!!
By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN
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